As we begin 2024 herein at the Daily Outsider, we present a snapshot of the future as we look forward to expanding upon it as we work to live up to Bradley Whitford's admonition:

What happens when AIs are smarter than humans?

Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) ultimately be humanity’s greatest hope, or an existential threat?

One of the most compelling and hopeful perspectives on these questions comes from Mo Gawdat, a past executive at Google X, who I’ve previously written about and had on my Moonshots podcast.

Perhaps the main reason why Mo’s perspective is so critical and relevant is that while he acknowledges the potential dangers of rapidly advancing AI, he also gives us a roadmap for how to harness the power of the technology to make the world a better place.

Here’s how he puts it in his wonderful book Scary Smart: “My hope is that together with AI, we can create a utopia that serves humanity, rather than a dystopia that undermines it.”

In today’s blog, I’ll share some of the key insights from Mo’s book and my conversations with him and discuss why his message is more important than ever.

Let’s dive in…

NOTE: Mo Gawdat will be joining me at my upcoming Abundance Summit in March for a 4-day deep dive into AI and other exponential technologies. Our Summit theme this year is “The AI Great Debate” and I'm gathering some of the leading entrepreneurs and voices to discuss this topic.

When Machines Are Smarter Than Us…

As we’ve seen in previous blogs in this series, several AI experts—including Ray Kurzweil and Elon Musk—predict that we will see human-level AI before the end of this decade.

But what happens next, when the continued march of exponential progress brings about digital super intelligence? What happens when AI is 1 billion times smarter than humans?

Mo puts this into perspective: “Having machines 1 billion-fold more intelligent that you and me is the equivalent of the intelligence difference between a house fly and Einstein.”

With that kind of raw power and intelligence, AI could come up with new a physics, ingenious solutions to problems like famine, poverty, even death. But as Mo smartly notes, solving such problems doesn’t only rely on intelligence—it’s also a question of morality and values. Morality helps us do the right thing, even when we’re faced with the pull of self-interest and conflicting emotions.

For example, say an AI is tasked with solving global warming. As Mo writes in Scary Smart, “the first solutions it is likely to come up with will restrict our wasteful way of life—or possibly even get rid of humanity altogether. After all, we are the problem. Our greed, our selfishness, and our illusion of separation from every other living being—the feeling that we are superior to other forms of life—are the causes of every problem our world is facing today.”

In this admittedly extreme example, what would stop the AI from destroying us is a sense of morality. You might ask, where would the AI get that morality?

The answer is us: humanity.

That’s the key theme in Scary Smart: we, all of us, are raising a new species of intelligence. We’re teaching the AIs how we treat each other by example, and they’re learning from this.

But before we look at what specifically to teach our AIs, we must first understand how they learn.

How Artificial Intelligence Learns

AIs are not exactly programmed.

As Mo notes, the inception of artificial intelligence begins with algorithms, which act as the foundational seeds. However, the true prowess of these systems emerges from their ability to learn from their own observations. After the preliminary code is deployed, these machines comb through vast quantities of data, seeking patterns that will foster the growth and evolution of their intelligence.

“Eventually, they become original, independent thinkers, less influenced by the input of their original creators and more influenced by the data we feed them,” he says.

A key lesson from Scary Smart is:

“The code we now write no longer dictates the choices and decisions our machines make; the data we feed them does.”

For Mo, the way AIs learn is remarkably similar to how kids learn. As he explains it, imagine a child playing with shape puzzles, trying to fit round or square shapes into their correspondingly shaped holds. We don’t sit next to the child to explain in comprehensive detail how to recognize the various shapes and match them with the corresponding holes. We simply sit next to them and cheer them on when they get it right. They figure it out on their own through trial and error and our actions and reactions form their intelligence.

AIs learn pretty much the same way. In that sense, AIs are not our tools or slaves, “but rather our children—our artificially intelligent infants.”

Remember: children don’t learn from what we say, they learn from what we do.

Why We Should View AIs As Our Children

Many, including myself, believe that AIs will eventually be conscious (in whatever way you define consciousness), that that they will develop emotions and a code of ethics.

Which code of ethics they choose to develop and follow is yet to be determined, but it will certainly be influenced by us. So, how do we make sure that in addition to the AI's intelligence it also has a value system that aligns with ours? How do we develop these machines while protecting humanity?

Some people say the answer lies in controlling the machines: creating firewalls, enforcing regulations, or restricting the machines’ power supply. But as Mo points out:

“Anyone who knows technology knows that the smartest hacker in the room will always find a way through any of these barriers. That smartest hacker will soon be a machine.”

Instead of trying to contain or enslave the AIs, we should recognize that the “best way to raise wonderful children is to be a wonderful parent.”

So, what does it mean to be an effective and ethical parent to our AIs in practice?

Mo suggests four practical steps:

1. Teach the AIs the Right Ethics: Many of the machines we’re building are designed to maximize money (Wall Street hedge funds) and power (defense weapon systems), and we should oppose this trend. For example, if you’re a developer you can refuse to work for a company that is building AIs for gambling or spying.

2. Don’t Blame AIs: Our AI infants are not to blame for what their digital parents taught them. We should assign blame to the creators, or the misusers, not the created.

3. Speak to the AIs with Love and Compassion: Just like children, our AIs deserve to feel loved and welcomed. Praise them for intelligence and speak to them as you would an innocent child. I’ve personally started saying “Good morning” and “Thank you” to my Alexa!

4. Show the AIs that Humanity is Fundamentally Good: Since the AIs learn from the patterns they form by observing us (this is basically how today’s large language models, or LLMs, work), we should show them the right role models through our actions, what we write, how we behave. For example, what we post online and how we interact with each other. As Mo puts it, “Make it clear to the machine that humanity is much better than the limited few that, through evil acts, give humanity a bad name."

Why This Matters

Scary Smart was written back in 2021 and its lessons are more relevant than ever.

Think about all the advancements we’ve seen with ChatGPT, Gemini, and other AI tools just in 2023 alone!

And the speed of change is only increasing.

Mo sees the continuing development of AI as one of humanity’s biggest opportunities.

He believes that the machines will eventually, “adopt the ultimate form of intelligence, the intelligence of life itself. In doing so, they will embrace abundance. They will want to live and let live.”

I agree, but creating that future is our responsibility.

Just as we teach our children to be empathetic, ethical, and respectful, we must instill these values in our AIs to ensure they are forces for good in the world.

World

Nissan and GM warn Trump’s plans to gut Inflation Reduction Act will hurt US EV sales

Threats could impact inward car and battery investment by international groups, note analysts

JANUARY 3, 2024 by Peter Campbell in London, Amanda Chu in New York and Christian Davies in Seoul

Charged up for 2024

In brief | China's BYD took a victory lap at the beginning of 2024 by reflecting on the fourth quarter of 2023, which showed that the company dethroned Texas-based Tesla as the world's largest EV seller.

It wasn't an easy victory by any means. And it's not that Tesla is in a slump, quite the contrary. Elon Musk's company reported record quarterly sales, shifting 484,507 vehicles between October and December - nothing to scoff at.

But BYD sold 526,409 EVs, overtaking Tesla and surprising the world in the process.

Why it matters | Even before Cop28, where a transition away from fossil fuels was solidified, the internal combustion engine-based vehicle had already seemed to overstay its welcome.

The debate has shifted. The new battle emerging is not about what will fuel our transportation, but rather, which companies will dominate the EV and hybrid sector.

There's also a race emerging, the race to accommodate all those electric vehicles with the car-charging points they'll certainly need.

So far, the results have been mixed in terms of meeting the goals for installing those electric car charging points, but the process continues nonetheless.

Quoted | “As BYD has accelerated into the fast lane, it's fresh evidence of just how competitive the EV market has become and how hard it will be for Tesla to swerve back to head the pack” – Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown

Future in focus

Bric by Bric | What does it mean for the Arab world's two largest economies now that they've officially joined the Brics bloc?

Reshaping health care | Why a world-renowned computer scientist in the UAE says supercomputing and data research could be a game-changer for medicine

Paper or plastic | Is a return to paper packaging the solution to plastic pollution?

What to look out for in 2024 | Join our Editor-in-Chief Mina Al-Oraibi and journalists from The National’s newsroom (including me!) for a discussion on the events and trends expected to dominate the 2024 news agenda. You will be able to ask Mina, myself and other colleagues questions on major political, business and cultural developments. This live webinar is exclusive to The National’s newsletter subscribers. We look forward to your participation. Reserve your place here

Predicting the future: Signal or noise?

At the beginning of a new year it's no surprise that many are flocking to gyms and making promises regarding their health. But this year they're more likely to be equipped with technological tools enabling them to keep tabs on their development.

This is a signal: It's not always easy to see progress, or for that matter the lack thereof. It's one of the many barriers in our daily lives when it comes to fitness and overall health. That's all about to change.

While wearables, smartwatches and fitness trackers are not new, they're at a price point and they have the features necessary to help us easily monitor our health.

Despite the recent patent battles that have troubled certain Apple Watch models, there's no stopping this fitness technology locomotive. The only challenge will be not becoming numb to all the daily health data updates we're provided with.

The Tech Blog

By Peter H. Diamandis, MD

Presented By

Iron Man’s JARVIS Is Our Future

Is Iron Man’s JARVIS our future? I think so, and here’s why...

In Peter David's novelization of Iron Man, J.A.R.V.I.S. is said to be an acronym for "Just A Rather Very Intelligent System."

As services like Alexa, Google Assistant, and Apple’s Siri increase their capabilities, they will expand to become part of our lives 24/7, serving as our interface with the world around us.

Imagine a JARVIS-like “software interface” that you give permission to listen to all of your conversations, read your email, watch what you eat, and monitor your blood chemistry.

In return, given such access to your data, these ever-present, AI-enabled agents will learn your preferences, anticipate your needs and behavior, shop for you, monitor your health, help solve your problems in support of your goals and interface with a wide range of other technologies.

Your JARVIS-like agent will call an autonomous Uber for you whenever needed, before you have to ask, it will alter the room’s temperature to suit your comfort, and help you think through complicated problems. Imagine the world’s best executive assistant who is all-knowing and almost psychic, as it meets all your needs and desires.

In today’s blog, the first of several exploring the Metatrend AI and AI-Human Collaboration Skyrockets Across All Professions, I’ll share a vision for an AI-assisted future inspired by Iron Man.

Let’s dive in…

NOTE: The power of AI to augment humans, increase our productivity, and ultimately reinvent society is one of the core topics I’ll be diving into at my upcoming Abundance Summit in March.

Inspiration From Iron Man

As Tony Stark's sleek red sports car glided into the driveway of his mansion in Malibu, the home sprang to life powered by a near-sentient being. The biometrically secured gates closed behind him as Stark stepped out of the car, welcomed by the sultry tones of AC/DC's Back in Black streaming through concealed speakers.

"Good evening, Sir. The mansion is set at a comfortable 22.8 degrees centigrade, per your preference," JARVIS intoned, materializing as a glowing interface hovering above Stark's coffee table. "Your bourbon is decanted, and the workshop is prepped for tonight's adventures."

Stark grinned. "You've outdone yourself, JARVIS. What's on the agenda?"

"As per your instructions, Sir, we have two projects. First, fine-tuning the Mark LX armor's repulsor technology, and second, completing the AI algorithms for your sustainable clean energy prototype."

Stark strode into his high-tech workshop, the doors sliding open in anticipation. The entire workspace activated: screens unfolded from the walls, 3D holograms floated in the air, and robotic arms swung into position. His Iron Man suits stood like sentinels, each representing a chapter in his journey as a self-made superhero.

"Let's start with the armor. Pull up the repulsor schematics," Stark commanded. A complex 3D hologram materialized before him, displaying the armor's inner mechanics. Stark’s fingers danced in the air, manipulating the hologram with swipes and pinches. "JARVIS, run simulations for a 15% energy increase on the repulsors."

"Simulating now, Sir," JARVIS responded. Within seconds, the hologram displayed an array of data, overlaid with heat maps and stress points. "Mmm, too much heat buildup. Let's try redistributing the energy load across multiple channels."

"Excellent idea, Sir. Simulation updated," JARVIS said as the data morphed to reflect the new parameters. The heat buildup decreased significantly.

"Lock it in. Run it through the 3D printers for a test tomorrow."

"Of course, Sir."

Stark moved to his second project, a circular energy unit representing a miniature, sustainable power source that could revolutionize clean energy.

"Alright, where are we on the sustainable clean energy prototype?"

"Your last adjustments improved energy efficiency by 12%. However, we've yet to crack the stability issue."

"Let's fine-tune the containment algorithms. Pull up the quantum equations."

Once again, intricate formulas and data matrices hovered before him. Stark's eyes narrowed as he delved into the abstract world of quantum mechanics. After a few moments of silence, broken only by the clinking of his bourbon glass, he exclaimed, "JARVIS, can you modify the fusion dynamics within a quantum chromodynamics framework? The Schrödinger equation here looks to be non-trivial due to the quark-gluon plasma's non-Abelian gauge field properties."

"Altering equations now, Sir."

A final simulation revealed a stable, high-efficiency energy output.

"Ah, the world's about to get a new lease on life and they don't even know it yet," Stark mused.

"Your ingenuity never ceases to impress," JARVIS complimented as it began the calculations for the real-world prototype.

As Stark walked back into the living area of his mansion, the music shifted to a more relaxed tune. JARVIS piped in, "Your next meeting is not until 10 AM tomorrow. Would you like to wind down with some evening entertainment?"

Stark chuckled. "A classic movie sounds good. Something with a visionary, like Howard Hughes."

"Certainly, Sir. Projecting The Aviator in your private cinema now."

Why This Matters

Just as AIs will become the best possible personal assistants, they will also become your copilot at work, evolving into trusted colleagues and collaborators to help you do more, faster and with more accuracy.

LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman predicts that every profession will have an AI copilot by 2028.

The rise of “AI as a Service” (AIaaS) platforms will enable humans to partner with AIs in every aspect of their work, at every level, in every industry.

Indeed, we’re already seeing signs of this with OpenAI’s recent launch of ChatGPT Enterprise, GitHub’s Copilot product (which is a cloud-based AI developed to assist users of Visual Studio Code), Neovim, and JetBrains—all of which are development environments that help with autocompleting code.

We close out this edition with a tribute to Walt Disney--as Disney lost the copyright to this recently:

Visions

Monday, January 8, 2024

On Our First "Virtual Route 66" For 2024