On Our Weekly "Virtual Route 66" This Week: On Our World

 

Our team, witness to the evolving vision of the future, presents the following snapshot on our weekly "Virtual Route 66":   

INSIDE TECH

1 The U.S. is set to grant TSMC $6.6B for three chip factories in Arizona. It is among the biggest awards yet under the U.S. Chips and Science Act, which set aside $39B in direct grants to boost U.S. production of advanced computer chips. What happened: Today, the Commerce Department announced a deal to award TSMC's Arizona subsidiary with $11.6B in Chips Act funds to ramp up production in Arizona. The preliminary award includes the $6.6B in direct federal grants and up to $5B in low-cost loans. Details: TSMC is already developing two chip fabs in Arizona, set to come online in 2025 and 2028. The Taiwanese chipmaker will now add a third Arizona fab by 2030, expanding its planned investment at the three plants by $25B to $65B. What: TSMC's first fab will produce 4-nanometer (nm) FinFET tech, while the second fab will produce more advanced 2-nm and 3-nm chips. The third fab will produce 2-nm or newer tech, which is crucial for applications in areas like AI, the military, and national security, according to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.  What's next: The Biden administration now plans to award $6B-7B to Samsung next week to expand its chip production in Texas, sources told Reuters. Why it matters: The U.S. share of chip manufacturing share was 12% in 2020, down from 37% in 1990. With projects like TSMC's and Samsung's, the U.S. is now on track to produce 20% of the world's most advanced chips by 2030, according to Raimondo.

2 Apple will allow music-streaming apps to inform EU users of other payment options outside its App Store. To comply with EU regulations, Apple says music-streaming apps like Spotify can now include a link or "buy button" directing users to the developer’s website. More: The sites can include details about ways to buy digital music content and services beyond Apple's App Store in the European Economic Area. Developers can also request users’ emails to send them website links for buying the music content, bypassing the App Store's 30% commission. Apple will still charge up to a 27% commission on purchases made via developers' websites within 7 days of clicking an app's external link. Zoom out: The move comes after the EU fined Apple $2B for blocking rival music streaming services like Spotify from directing iPhone users to cheaper payment options outside the App Store. The fine required Apple to eliminate the "anti-steering provisions" from its App Store rules, which it appears to have tried to comply with. The anti-steering rule was illegal under the bloc's new Digital Markets Act (DMA). EU officials are still investigating if Apple's changes are enough to comply with the DMA.

3 China will attempt to influence elections in the U.S., South Korea, and India using AI-generated content, Microsoft has warned. China already led an AI-generated disinformation campaign during Taiwan's January presidential election, marking the first time state-backed actors used AI to influence a foreign election, according to Microsoft. More: Microsoft's Threat Intelligence released a report last week, saying China has bumped up its use of AI-generated content to advance "its goals around the world."   The report cites different AI-generated memes, videos, and audio created by Chinese state-backed cyber groups to influence elections and/or stoke chaos. One AI-created image falsely attributed the 2023 Hawaii fires to a U.S. military-grade "weather weapon." Another AI campaign tried to spread distrust in the U.S. government after the Kentucky train derailment in November. Chinese and, to a lesser extent, North Korean influence actors are expected to target elections in the U.S., India, and South Korea this year, Microsoft said.

4 Google's new Find My Device network helps users locate offline Android phones and other devices. The upgraded network launches today in the U.S. and Canada, with a worldwide rollout to follow. More: The crowdsourced network uses a billion Android 9+ devices to help locate lost items. With Bluetooth, the new network tracks missing phones even when disconnected from Wi-Fi or cellular networks. Users can locate and ring compatible Android devices in the Find My Device app, with their location shown on a map. Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pros can be found even when powered off or with a dead battery. Zoom out: The network will also work with Fast Pair accessories, including earbuds and trackers, when they're disconnected. Starting in May, the network will support Bluetooth tracker tags from Pebblebee and Chipolo.

5 Elon Musk said Tesla will reveal its robotaxi on Aug. 8. The next-gen electric vehicle could be designed entirely for self-driving, with no pedals or steering wheel. More: After launching the Cybertruck, Tesla was expected to unveil two new vehicles: a more budget-friendly $25,000 electric car and a robotaxi. However, Reuters reported last week that Tesla canceled the cheaper "Model 2" EV in favor of the robotaxi. Musk denied that report but announced the date of the robotaxi reveal soon after. Robotaxi features: Walter Isaacson's biography of Musk revealed a Cybertruck-inspired, angular two-door Tesla robotaxi with a stainless steel finish. Musk has said robotaxi owners could earn money by renting out their cars for a taxi service, with Tesla taking a commission. Zoom out: Tesla still has more work to do on its self-driving software. Last year, the automaker voluntarily recalled around 360,000 vehicles after safety regulators said its Full Self-Driving software could raise the risk of accidents. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the driver-assistance software could cause vehicles to travel above speed limits or in “an unlawful or unpredictable manner."

6 Nintendo will permanently shut down online services for the 3DS and Wii U today. Offline games will still work on both aging consoles. More: The 3DS handheld launched in 2011, followed by the Wii U, a precursor to the Switch, a year later. Nintendo announced last year that it would close the online services for both consoles in April 2024. Features including StreetPass, Poké Transporter, and Pokémon Bank will remain online. Zoom out: Nintendo could launch the Switch 2 as early as March 2025. The next-gen console is rumored to feature a larger screen with graphics on par with PS5 and Xbox Series X, along with ray tracing and the ability to run Unreal Engine 5.

7 QUICK HITS: When it’s time to grow your company, make Ohio your competitive advantage with better sites, sharper talent, earlier funding, and less red tape.* "The Eclipse App" reached the top of Apple's App Store today, offering cloud cover forecasts, totality timing, and local event details for today's solar eclipse. Best Buy's in-house tech support, known as the Geek Squad, underwent mass layoffs last week. The number of employees wasn't disclosed. The FAA is investigating a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 after its engine cover detached mid-flight; the plane safely returned to Denver International Airport with no injuries reported. A report by Adecco reveals that 41% of business leaders expect to employ fewer workers within five years due to AI technology.

Recovering 216 Hours Per Year: Tesla & Waymo

 

Autonomous, electric, ride-sharing “car-as-a-service” (using robotaxis) has the potential to be 80% cheaper than individual car ownership.

 

The average U.S. commuter currently spends a mind-numbing 52 minutes each day roundtrip, trapped in the confines of their vehicle—for average employees that’s equivalent to recovering 216 hours, or twenty-seven 8-hour days, during your year.

 

Freed from the task of driving, this time could be transformed into periods of relaxation, productivity, or even leisure. Ever thought of finishing a novel, practicing a new language, or perhaps indulging in some personal passions during your commute?

 

The era of the robo-chauffeur promises just that.

 

In today’s blog, I’ll discuss the top two companies leading this transportation revolution... Tesla & Waymo.

 

Let’s dive in…

 

 

Tesla

 

Tesla has a secret plan is to deliver a global fleet of robotaxis—and I have every confidence Elon will make that happen. What’s his secret weapon? The release of Tesla’s newest iteration of Full Self-Driving or FSD 12, a radical departure from Tesla's previous versions.

 

Unlike prior systems, FSD 12 wasn't created from meticulously crafted lines of C++ code. Instead, it arose from the technology's ability to learn autonomously, imbibing billions of video frames to mimic human drivers.

 

A Tesla engineer, Dhaval Shroff, likened it to ChatGPT, stating, "It's like ChatGPT, but for cars."

 

The essence here was replicating human learning processes through neural networks, processing massive data volumes to simulate human actions in intricate driving scenarios.

 

Historically, Tesla's Autopilot used a rules-based approach, a structure where specific situations triggered codified reactions. Lane markings, pedestrian movements, vehicles, signals, each elicited a programmed response. But FSD 12 turned this approach on its head. Instead of following rigid rules, Shroff's "neural network planner" emulated human behavior, learning not from pre-set conditions but from observing human drivers' actions in real-life scenarios.

 

Central to Tesla’s robotaxi objectives is a singular metric—"miles driven without human intervention.”

 

Elon's directive was clear: "I want the latest data on miles per intervention to be the starting slide at each of our meetings."

 

The goal?

 

Push the limits of the neural network until it surpassed human driving capabilities.

 

The team's discovery that optimal performance required training on at least 1 million video clips underscored Tesla's unique advantage in this race to full autonomy. And the way in which Tesla’s Autopilot learned is something that surprised even Elon. As he put it, “I mean the really wild thing about the end-to-end training is that it learns to read. It can read signs, but we never taught it to read … we never taught it what a car was or what a person was or a cyclist. It learnt what all those things are, what all the objects are on the road from video, just from watching videos. Just like humans.”

 

With nearly 2 million Tesla cars globally collecting data daily, the company was uniquely poised to train and constantly improve FSD 12.

 

As of April 2024, Tesla has rolled out v12.3.3 of FSD, now called FSD (Supervised), to over 5,000 cars. Under the driver’s supervision, FSD vastly improves the car’s autonomous capabilities—from making lane changes and navigating around other cars or objects, to making left and right turns and parallel parking. (As of the writing of this blog, Tesla is already beginning its initial rollout out of FSD (Supervised) v12.3.4.)

 

I personally love my Model S on FSD... 99.9% of time it gets me all the way to my destination, and it’s only tried to kill me once!

 

 

Waymo

 

Beginning life as Google's internal experiment in 2009, Waymo evolved under Alphabet into a dedicated venture aimed at bridging the vast divide between self-driving vehicles and revenue generating robotaxis.

 

In its commitment to reshaping the future, Waymo vehicles have traversed over 12 million miles since 2009, both in real-world environments and simulations.

 

The company's profound objective is to eradicate human errors that account for countless fatalities annually. Leveraging state-of-the-art camera and Lidar laser technology, Waymo's fleet is equipped to visualize the world in incredible detail, irrespective of the hour. This ability to navigate with precision owes much to real-time sensor data fused with intricately detailed custom maps. And with the computational prowess of server-grade GPUs and CPUs, Waymo's onboard systems can process this flood of data, ensuring that passengers experience a journey that's not only safe but efficiently plotted.

 

In August 2023, Waymo made history in San Francisco, as the company began allowing the public to pay for rides in its driverless cars.

 

This groundbreaking development saw Waymo's vehicles functioning as true robotaxis, offering a glimpse into a future where the traditional taxi experience is reimagined. With the Waymo One app, booking a ride is as intuitive as hailing an Uber, but what arrives is a gleaming white Jaguar from Waymo's 250-strong fleet. These vehicles, each valued at a staggering $200,000, are outfitted with an array of high-tech sensors and cameras, ensuring an unparalleled level of safety and efficiency.

 

Yet, despite their technological sophistication, rides remain affordable, with fares ranging from $18 to $21, on par with traditional ride-hailing services.

 

As Waymo continues to push the boundaries of autonomous transportation, the company's recent expansion into Los Angeles marks a significant milestone.

 

In March 2024, Waymo secured approval from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to extend its services to select areas of Los Angeles and the Bay Area. With an initial fleet of fewer than 50 cars, Waymo's operational territory encompasses approximately 63 square miles, stretching from the coastal charm of Santa Monica to the vibrant heart of downtown Los Angeles.

 

While the service currently excludes airport trips and freeway travel, the demand is palpable, with a waitlist of 50,000 eager Angelenos ready to experience the magic of autonomous rides.

 

For Waymo, the Los Angeles expansion represents more than just another market—it is a proving ground for the company's vision of the future. With a metropolitan population of 13 million, LA's intricate web of freeways, narrow streets, and unprotected left turns, coupled with its notorious traffic and distracted drivers, poses a formidable challenge.

 

Yet, the potential rewards are immense, with estimates suggesting that the LA market could generate up to $2 billion in revenue for the company.

 

 

Why This Matters

 

With the rise of autonomous vehicles, the landscape of the auto industry is poised for a seismic shift.

 

Currently home to over a hundred brands, the next decade will witness a substantial consolidation in the automotive realm.

 

Two main forces will drive this: car usage rates and functionality.

 

Most cars today are utilized less than 5% of their potential, often gathering dust in driveways. With the advent of car-as-a-service, fewer vehicles will serve more people, disrupting the demand-supply chain.

 

Additionally, in this new market, brand loyalty will wane. Consumers, attracted by efficiency and cost-effectiveness, will care less about the brand and more about the service.

 

Hence, a significant reduction in the number of automaker brands is anticipated, challenging giants in Detroit, Germany, and Japan.

 

Donald Shoup, an esteemed urban planning professor at UCLA, provides insight into another profound implication: the impact on real estate. With a staggering 2 billion parking spots in the U.S., Shoup points out the startling fact that “the area of parking per car in the United States is thus larger than the area of housing per human.”

 

Furthermore, he reveals the hidden costs of “free parking,” estimating U.S. expenditures between $102 billion to $374 billion—somewhere in the ballpark of the Medicare and national defense budgets. But what if these vast parking spaces become redundant? With autonomous vehicles on-demand, the demand for parking diminishes. Our cities could witness a commercial real estate boom, or perhaps, some of these spaces might metamorphose into thriving community centers or lush green parks.

 

The future of autonomous vehicles isn't merely about technological progression—it's about reshaping societies, economies, and urban landscapes.

Flying Car Leaders: Archer & Joby Aviation   Flying cars are finally here.   You can call them “eVTOLs” (electric vertical take-off/landing) or “air taxis,” I personally will call them flying cars.   After decades of waiting, the convergence of a few key technologies and factors will enable commercial service to start in 2025: DEP or direct electric propulsion: special electric motors Batteries: higher energy density, cheaper batteries, mainly driven by Tesla Materials: lightweight, strong materials Sensors: a new generation of sensors Computation/AI: the ability to integrate all data for safe flights Regulatory Support: governments are finally ready to license this tech Regarding this last bullet, in November 2022 the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed new rules that help pave the way for commercial air taxi operations by 2025, adding something called “powered-lift” operations to its regulations.   Former acting FAA Administrator Billy Nolen has said this about the future timeline:   “We know that when the Los Angeles Olympics get underway in 2028, air taxis will be in high demand. We may see some of them in the years leading up, but nowhere near the scale in 2028.”   Industry reports suggest the potential for a $30 billion marketplace by 2030.   In today’s blog, we’ll look at the two leading flying car companies: Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation.   Let’s dive in…     Archer Aviation   Last month, I hosted Archer Aviation CEO Adam Goldstein and Chief Commercial Officer Nikhil Goel at the Abundance Summit.   In September of 2021, Archer Aviation went public (via SPAC) for $3.8 billion.   Today, their flying car design called Midnight boasts an impressive performance envelope: Payload: Pilot + 4 paying passengers + luggage Propulsion: 12 electric engines supported by 6 independent battery packs Range: Up to 100 miles Speed: Up to 150 miles per hour Altitude: Typically, 1,500 feet (below 5,000 feet) Charge time: 12-minute charge time between back-to-back 20-mile flights The year 2023 marked a pivotal milestone in the development of Midnight, as the company conducted its first full-scale, uncrewed, and tethered test flight. This achievement, the result of four years of rigorous flight testing, paved the way for further advancements.    Looking ahead, Archer is poised to conduct an astounding 400 tests of its Midnight aircraft in 2024, a testament to their unwavering dedication to perfecting this groundbreaking technology.   On the regulatory front, Archer has made significant strides. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recently approved certification plans for Archer's production aircraft, and the company has announced that the first three piloted aircraft are currently under construction. These conforming Midnight aircraft will begin piloted flight testing later this year and will subsequently undergo “for credit” flight testing with the FAA as Archer progresses towards commercialization.   The company has secured an impressive indicative order book of up to 700 aircraft, valued at $3.5 billion, from major players such as United Airlines in the US, InterGlobe in India, and Air Chateau in the United Arab Emirates.   So, when can we expect to see Archer's Midnight overhead?    The company has set an ambitious goal of bringing the Midnight eVTOL to market by 2025. In partnership with Atlantic Aviation, Archer is developing electric aircraft infrastructure at existing assets, including Santa Monica Municipal Airport (SMO). Early launch markets will focus on highly congested cities such as Los Angeles, New York, and Miami, with initial routes connecting airports to city centers. As availability of the Midnight increases, services will expand to other locations across Atlantic's portfolio.   To illustrate the transformative potential of eVTOL technology, consider a trip from Santa Monica to Malibu. While this 12-mile journey could take over an hour by road, an air taxi would cover the distance in a mere five minutes, with each passenger paying roughly $30 to $40—less than the cost of a rideshare vehicle.